Why the ANC lost South Africa: A deep dive on the elections and future of the country

Analysing the historical context of the EFF, MK and DA in a co-alition government

The ANC have no one to blame but themselves. For the first time in post-Apartheid history, the ANC does not have a majority in the South African government.

The 2024 general elections, held on May 29 2024, saw the African National Congress (ANC) secure 39.77% of the vote, translating to 159 seats in the 400-member National Assembly. Voter turnout was relatively low, with only 58.61% of registered voters casting their ballots.

This decline in participation raises concerns about public disengagement and disenchantment with the political process. So who got the majority of the other seats?

The Democratic Alliance (DA) with 87 seats, the uMkhonto weSizwe party (MK party) with 58 seats, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) with 39 seats. The last two are notable to my readers as MK is former South African president Jacob Zuma’s new party and the EFF is represented by Julius Malema, a wildly popular figure in the pan-African movement.

Now to people in the US for example, there doesn’t seem to be a problem here. It wasn’t a close election with the ANC gaining almost double the seats of their closest opponent. Not so. This is because South Africa operates a parliamentary system similar to the UK where you vote for a party that works with other parties within that system based on the number of seats gained. In order to operate with impunity, a party needs a big enough majority to prevent its policies from being obstructed by other parties with sizeable shares of seats.

The ANC has had this for decades. Now they must form a coalition with other parties to create the kind of majority they once commanded on their own. That coalition will mean agreeing to policies that those partners will want to be implemented in exchange for their compliance with the ANC’s. The fact that the DA will now be the primary partner in any coalition government the ANC creates is significant when you know the history of these parties and the perception they have in South African society today.

In order to understand the gravity of what has happened, it’s important to appreciate some of that history and how we got to this point. I am going to do that for you.

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